Possible scenario
Washington-Kyiv Compromise
25% Chance
Ukraine and the U.S. reach a quiet arrangement that allows attacks on military logistics and fuel used directly by Russian forces but curbs strikes on major civilian refining assets. Kyiv preserves U.S. intelligence access, while Washington avoids a public rupture with Zelenskyy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Energy -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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