Possible scenario
Major Escalation Cycle
20% Chance
Ukraine conducts a successful long-range strike that disables a large Russian refinery or export-linked fuel hub for days. Moscow retaliates with major attacks on Ukrainian power and gas infrastructure, while the U.S. imposes a more visible intelligence freeze for energy targeting.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.