Possible scenario
Limited Strikes Resume
45% Chance
Kyiv resumes refinery and fuel-depot strikes but avoids the most systemically important Russian export infrastructure. Washington voices disapproval and narrows some tactical intelligence channels, but stops short of a full cutoff because battlefield support for Ukraine remains a U.S. priority.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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