Possible scenario
Protests Spread Nationally
25% Chance
The Milan unrest becomes a focal point for broader cost-of-living anger after the government’s deficit-cutting 2026 budget. Unions, student groups, and housing activists coordinate demonstrations in other large cities, raising near-term risks to transport, retail activity, and Italian assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.