Possible scenario
Contained Unrest
45% Chance
Italian authorities contain the Milan unrest through heavier policing, targeted arrests, and negotiations with local organizers. Protests continue but remain mostly localized, limiting market relevance beyond a small hit to Milan retail, hospitality, and Italian political-risk sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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