Possible scenario
State Pushback Contains Crisis
35% Chance
Minnesota officials move quickly to condemn the statement, increase police presence around Somali neighborhoods, and discourage retaliatory action. Gov. Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, and Rep. Ilhan Omar frame the issue as public safety and civil rights rather than immigration enforcement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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