Possible scenario
Taiz Encirclement Tightens
38% Chance
Houthi forces take or dominate Al-Turbah and bring the last practical Taiz-Aden supply route under fire control. This is the most likely path because the prior cutoff of the Taiz-Aden road already gave the Houthis momentum and left anti-Houthi forces defending a narrow logistics corridor.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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