Possible scenario
Mediated Pause Emerges
20% Chance
Omani and UN envoys press the Houthis and the internationally recognized government into a limited humanitarian pause around Al-Turbah. This is less likely than continued fighting but credible because both sides have previously used local access deals to manage pressure without signing a comprehensive settlement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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