Possible scenario
IDF Control Entrenched
45% Chance
Netanyahu's position becomes the operative Israeli baseline: no Arab military force west of the Jordan River, with the IDF retaining overriding security authority in Gaza and the West Bank. Washington and Arab governments object publicly but continue talks to preserve a pathway for reconstruction and limited Palestinian Authority administration.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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