Possible scenario
Governance Plan Stalls
20% Chance
Netanyahu's refusal to allow an Arab army west of the Jordan River leaves the Palestinian Authority without sufficient political cover to assume responsibilities in Gaza. Donors postpone major reconstruction commitments, and Israel remains responsible for security while civilian governance remains fragmented.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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