Possible scenario
Compromise Security Formula
25% Chance
US and Arab pressure pushes Israel toward a narrower interpretation of Netanyahu's red line. Arab states still refuse to place an army west of the Jordan River, but they support a non-combat policing, training or monitoring framework tied to the Palestinian Authority.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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