Possible scenario
Compliance Review Follows
25% Chance
The incident prompts Salvadoran authorities and Bitcoin-service providers to review custodial-wallet practices without reversing the country's Bitcoin policy. The likely policy response is targeted reporting and security requirements, not a ban or systemic intervention.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.