Possible scenario
Republican Narrow Hold
37% Chance
Republicans absorb a difficult political environment but prevent Democrats from reaching the four-seat net gain needed for outright control. This path likely depends on holding at least one of Iowa or North Carolina, keeping Maine competitive for Susan Collins, or defeating Jon Ossoff in Georgia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Finance +0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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