Possible scenario
Republican Clear Hold
12% Chance
The Democratic generic-ballot edge fades or proves inefficient across Senate battlegrounds. Republicans hold most exposed seats and may defeat Jon Ossoff in Georgia, producing a clearer majority than late-September ratings imply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Finance +0.9%
- Healthcare +0.4%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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