Possible scenario
Democratic Narrow Majority
43% Chance
Democrats convert the national ballot lead and Republican retirements into a small Senate majority. The most plausible path is holding vulnerable Democratic seats such as Georgia and Michigan while flipping the open North Carolina and Iowa seats plus one of Maine, Ohio, or Alaska.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Finance -0.7%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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