Possible scenario
Security hawks prevail
25% Chance
Congressional China hawks and defense officials argue that OpenAI's new position understates military and surveillance risks. Export-control enforcement remains broadly intact, limiting the immediate practical impact of OpenAI's policy shift.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.6%
- AMD-1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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