Possible scenario
Controls soften gradually
40% Chance
OpenAI's reversal gives political cover to the argument that strict chip controls have pushed Chinese AI buyers toward Huawei without stopping model progress. The Trump administration keeps national-security guardrails but becomes more receptive to licensed sales of older or capped U.S. accelerators.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA+3.0%
- AMD+1.5%
- MSFT+0.4%
- AMZN+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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