Possible scenario
Orderly Correction Starts
20% Chance
Burry’s warning becomes a focal point for a broader de-risking episode after record highs and months of AI-led gains. The move resembles a sharp correction rather than a financial crisis, with volatility rising and investors moving into Treasuries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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