Possible scenario
UBS Baseline Materializes
38% Chance
UBS's call proves close to the emerging Federal Reserve consensus, with inflation and wage data keeping policymakers on a tightening path. Jerome Powell and other FOMC officials guide markets toward a December 2026 hike followed by additional moves by March 2027.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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