Possible scenario
Inflation Forces More
20% Chance
UBS proves too conservative if services inflation, wages, or commodity prices reaccelerate. In that case, the Fed may have to guide toward more than three hikes, with a sharper repricing across Treasuries, growth equities, and credit.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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