Possible scenario
Fed Stops Earlier
30% Chance
The FOMC ultimately lands closer to New York Fed President John Williams's less aggressive projection than to UBS's three-hike forecast. Softer inflation prints and signs of cooling demand reduce the need for repeated tightening.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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