• 

  

  38%

  +0.1%

  Cooperation Contains Dispute

  Nvidia and House Republican staff reach a procedural compromise before a subpoena is formally served. The company provides documents, outside-counsel findings, and a voluntary interview or briefing that keeps the confrontation from becoming a prolonged public fight.

• 

  

  32%

  −0.6%

  Subpoena Fight Escalates

  The committee proceeds with a subpoena after concluding Nvidia has not provided sufficient access to Huang or internal materials. The issue remains mainly company-specific, but the national-security framing weighs modestly on the broader technology sector.

  Technology −0.7%

• 

  

  20%

  −1.1%

  Damaging Evidence Surfaces

  New reporting or congressional disclosures substantiate that Alice Huang had contact with Chinese intelligence-linked actors and targeted Jensen Huang or Nvidia-related information. This becomes more severe for Nvidia if lawmakers connect the episode to export controls, sensitive AI-chip information, or board oversight.

  Technology −1.3%

• 

  

  10%

  +0.4%

  Allegations Lose Force

  The inquiry weakens after committee staff, Nvidia’s internal review, or intelligence briefings fail to establish that company data or classified information was compromised. The subpoena threat fades, and the stock recovers some risk premium.

  Technology +0.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.