Possible scenario
Sanctions Enforcement Fractures
25% Chance
Russia and China treat the monitoring mechanism as non-U.N. and politically biased, making enforcement more dependent on a coalition of willing states. This would preserve sanctions pressure in allied jurisdictions but weaken global legitimacy and leave more room for North Korean-Russian military cooperation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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