Possible scenario
Provocations Escalate
20% Chance
Pyongyang may pair its legal rejection of the monitoring team with a missile launch, satellite test or nuclear-site activity to reinforce its claimed nuclear status. This is less likely than rhetorical resistance, but the background of alleged Russia arms transfers and North Korea’s nuclear-status claim raises the odds of a show of force.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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