Monitoring Proceeds Anyway

The most likely path is that the U.S., South Korea, Japan, the EU and other partners continue the replacement monitoring effort outside the defunct U.N. panel. Pyongyang rejects the team as illegitimate, but the practical outcome is more documentation of alleged arms transfers, cyber theft and maritime sanctions evasion rather than an immediate crisis.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.