Possible scenario
Probe Stays Contained
40% Chance
The most likely path is that State Department investigators treat the new audio as evidence in a narrow ethics and corruption review of Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle. The White House distances President Trump from the alleged payment request while allowing the inspector general process to continue.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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