Possible scenario
Guilfoyle Forced Out
30% Chance
The audio and earlier allegations become politically untenable, leading Guilfoyle to resign or be removed from the ambassadorship. The administration frames the exit as accountability while trying to prevent the story from reaching Trump directly.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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