Possible scenario
Balance Sheet Scrutiny
20% Chance
Rating agencies and auditors focus on whether capital workarounds masked risk in private-credit holdings backing annuities. This is less likely than a regulatory process, but it would create the sharpest near-term financial reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.