Possible scenario
Uneven Enforcement
30% Chance
Many US-aligned jurisdictions tighten controls, but several countries with strategic or energy links to Iran preserve limited banking and aviation channels. This outcome is plausible because secondary sanctions often produce overcompliance among Western-linked banks but uneven behavior among non-Western intermediaries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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