Possible scenario
Iran Retaliates
18% Chance
Iran responds to the widening sanctions campaign with threats, cyber activity or proxy pressure rather than immediate negotiation. This is less likely than compliance or uneven enforcement, but the risk is material because aviation and banking restrictions hit sensitive channels for hard currency access.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.