Possible scenario
Broad Allied Compliance
42% Chance
Most US allies and dollar-dependent financial centers comply with Treasury requests to sever aviation and banking ties with Iran. This is the baseline because the UAE has already acted against Bank Melli Iran and multiple countries have moved against Iranian airlines after the US order.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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