Possible scenario
Technology Carveouts Dominate
26% Chance
Trade détente continues, but the decisive issue becomes whether the U.S. allows narrow licensing for semiconductors, AI accelerators, and chipmaking tools. This path preserves broader trade calm while keeping national-security controls at the center of U.S.-China economic policy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Tickers
- AMAT+0.7%
- AAPL-0.5%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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