Possible scenario
Managed Détente Holds
44% Chance
The most likely path is that Washington and Beijing preserve the truce through 2027 while avoiding a full trade reset. Both Trump and Xi have incentives to lock in predictability for manufacturers, exporters, and consumers without conceding on core strategic disputes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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