Possible scenario
Domestic Friction Limits Deal
18% Chance
The truce faces criticism from U.S. lawmakers, labor groups, and national-security officials who argue that Beijing has not made enough enforceable concessions. This does not immediately end the agreement, but it narrows the room for deeper tariff relief.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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