Possible scenario
Contained Retaliation Cycle
40% Chance
Iran follows through with pressure on U.S. interests but keeps attacks below the threshold likely to force a major U.S. campaign. Washington reinforces bases in Iraq, Syria, Bahrain and Qatar while using regional intermediaries to warn Tehran against killing U.S. personnel.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.