Possible scenario
Backchannel De-Escalation
20% Chance
Despite public threats, Tehran and Washington use Qatar, Oman and possibly Switzerland to clarify red lines and prevent an uncontrolled military spiral. This is plausible because Iran wants deterrence and leverage, while Trump may prefer freedom of action after the midterms.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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