Possible scenario
Major Urban Operation
28% Chance
Israel converts the alert into a larger ground operation against Hamas positions in Gaza City or central Gaza. The campaign would likely involve armor, engineering units, and heavier airstrikes, increasing humanitarian and diplomatic pressure within days.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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