Possible scenario
Sustained Strike Campaign
30% Chance
Russia follows the Antonov strike with further attacks on defense-industrial and power infrastructure around Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipro. The pattern would fit Moscow's recent prioritization of jet-powered Geran drones and large salvos designed to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Tickers
- RTX+1.9%
- LMT+1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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