Possible scenario
Allied Response Package
16% Chance
Ukraine's allies respond politically and materially, focusing on drone-component sanctions, air-defense deliveries, and counter-drone systems. This is a plausible next step because Russia's drone supply chain has long relied on Iranian designs and imported electronics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+1.6%
- LMT+1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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