Possible scenario
Oil Infrastructure Threat
20% Chance
The attack or its aftermath disrupts operations around Kurdish oil fields, export routes, or contractor movement, even if no major pipeline is destroyed. Because Iraq is a major OPEC producer, markets would add a modest crude risk premium over the next one to two sessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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