Possible scenario
Iraq Security Response
25% Chance
Iraq’s federal government and the KRG increase deployments, intelligence coordination, and air-defense requests after the U.S. withdrawal leaves fewer deterrent assets in-country. The response remains defensive, but the chance of militia miscalculation rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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