Possible scenario
Contained Border Crisis
45% Chance
Iran frames the attack as a limited operation against Kurdish opposition groups, while Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government protest but avoid military retaliation. This is the most likely path because Iran has previously used calibrated strikes in Iraqi Kurdistan without triggering a wider regional conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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