Possible scenario
Hold Relief Persists
42% Chance
Warsh's lack of a clear hike signal keeps traders anchored to a Fed hold at the October meeting. Bitcoin remains supported near $82,000 as Treasury yields and volatility stay contained over the next one to two trading days.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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