Possible scenario
Hawkish Odds Rebound
25% Chance
Other Fed officials or follow-up market interpretation push back against the dovish read from Warsh. October hike odds recover from 15%, pressuring Bitcoin and other duration-sensitive risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.