Possible scenario
West Bank Violence Spreads
20% Chance
The revelation of a large alleged terror cell becomes a trigger for localized retaliation and counter-retaliation in the West Bank and mixed cities. This path is less likely than containment but plausible given the prior pattern of settler violence, organized riots and extremist plots.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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