Possible scenario
Security Crackdown Contains Plot
45% Chance
Israeli security services move quickly to frame the case as a disrupted domestic terror network rather than a sign of institutional collapse. The most likely path is arrests, indictments and heightened protection for Arab communities without a major cross-border escalation.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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