Possible scenario
Democratic Coalition Fractures
27% Chance
The skipped Oct. 7 statement becomes a symbol of deeper Democratic divisions over Israel, Gaza, and antisemitism. El-Sayed remains the nominee, but the controversy complicates unity efforts in a state where small shifts among Jewish, Arab American, Muslim American, and suburban voters can matter.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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