Possible scenario
U.S.-Brokered Pause
27% Chance
The Ovda meeting produces a coordinated deterrence posture but not an immediate attack order. The United States, Oman, Qatar, and European governments press both Israel and Iran into a temporary pause while air defenses remain on high alert.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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