Possible scenario
Regional Proxy War
20% Chance
Iran avoids an immediate direct all-out exchange but activates allied militias across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the Red Sea. Israel expands operations beyond Iran-linked targets, while U.S. forces focus on defending bases and shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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