Possible scenario
Limited Israeli Strike
38% Chance
Israel conducts a focused air and missile operation against Iranian launch sites, IRGC facilities, and radar nodes while trying to avoid a broader regional war. U.S. forces at Ovda provide intelligence, aerial refueling, and air-defense coordination but do not openly strike Iranian territory.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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